After the first half of the 2023-24 season, it wasn’t uncommon to see posts on social media where people were asking if the offseason acquisition of PL Dubois was worth it for the Kings. After all, Dubois had his fair share of struggles while Gabriel Vilardi, the key player going the other way in that deal, with Winnipeg, found some early success and is currently scoring at a 0.75 Points-Per-Game pace (a career high).
In the first article of this series, we dug into how Dubois was not playing as well as expected — but that was back in February. Now, nearly two months later and with a new coaching staff guiding the way, we’ll re-examine the situation and look at what may have changed.
For the purpose of this discussion, we’ll be analyzing Dubois’ stats from before game 48 (the most recent game when we last reviewed his play) and from game 49 to current. Of course, this isn’t exactly the first and second half of the season, so why are we splitting the games up like this? Remember, between these two periods came an All-Star break and a bye-week for the Kings, giving Dubois time to make necessary adjustments.
Over that break was also the now infamous Lilo & Stitch trip to Hawaii.
Dubois Talks Lilo, Stitch, and Jim Hiller as new Kings Coach
Although part of that interview delved into an important aspect of all of this that isn’t talked about enough — life away from the rink — it also touched on the biggest Kings news of the season thus far, a change behind the bench.
Thus, splitting the games into groups of 1-48 and 49-74 (26 games) may provide a more meaningful breakdown of Dubois’ change in play, as it divides the season from coach Todd McLellan to Jim Hiller.
Basic Scoring
In his first 48 games, Dubois was only averaging 1.6 Points-Per 60. Since then, he is averaging 2.16, a staggering 35% increase. What’s really interesting here is that his goals-per-60 has remained nearly the same (0.72), while his assists-per-60 has increased from 0.97 to 1.44.
Naturally, an increase in both goals and assists would be great, yet a 35% increase in production is nothing to complain about either. Generally speaking, Dubois has done a much better job making plays over the past 45+ days, and the numbers reflect this. Typically, NHL centers have more points coming from assists than goals; so this type of data tracks with other players. Take Anže Kopitar as an example, he has 418 career goals and 788 assists.
Putting some of this in similar terms, Phil Danault is likely a great benchmark when looking at Dubois. Rather than comparing the latter to other players around the league, let’s just look at a player on the same Kings team — and it’s an easy comparison because Dubois’ contract suggests he needs to be putting him better offensive numbers than Danault. Last season, the Kings No. 2 center had 54 points (18G, 36A). This season, Danault is on pace to score about the same number of goals, while seeing his assists drop to about 28. How does Dubois size up to this comparison? Projecting out his performance since Hiller took over to a full 82-game season, Dubois would be looking at about 17 goals and 33 assists. That’s virtually identical to Danualt.
Again, to truly perform at the level ultimately required, Dubois will need to surpass those numbers — which he was able to do on other teams when holding down first and second line roles. As an example, in four of his previous six NHL seasons, Dubois has scored 20 or more goals. As somebody just now entering the prime of his career, pushing those numbers higher is more than possible. Further, he’s only recorded 35+ assists once, and that was last season. So this should continue being one of the primary areas of growth moving forward.
Advanced Stats
We talked about Dubois scoring far fewer goals than expected in our first article. According to NaturalStatTrick, Dubois had about 12 xG after 48 games, while only actually scoring seven. Since then, he has about 5.6 xG and has scored five. Whether this change is due to better luck, a better feel for the puck, or something else, it is welcomed.
When it comes to shot attempts, or Corsi (read more about Corsi here), Dubois is actually taking about 2.5 fewer shot attempts per 60 in recent games (14.5 versus 12). Knowing this, maybe his increase is production is due to being more selective with the shots he does take. Instead of spraying the goalie with shots, these numbers suggest he could be taking his time to look for the opportunity to pull the trigger.
Overall Season Stats
Now let’s take a look at some of Dubois’ total season stats.
As we’ve discussed before, shot location and distance from the net is incredibly important when it comes to scoring goals. And Dubois is doing a great job shooting from close to the net. His average shot distance this season is 24 feet.
Compare that to Hart Trophy frontrunner Auston Matthews – he shoots from an average of 26 ft from the net. This suggests that Dubois is finding success shooting from close to the net this season. None of this is to imply that Dubois is, or should be, playing at the same level as Matthews, but rather it’s a comparison of how and where some of the game’s best players utilize space on the ice.
However, not all shots will go in, no matter how close they are to the net. Another measurement worth looking into is rebounds generated. This season, 11.8% of Dubois’ shots generate rebounds. Brayden Point, an elite NHL center, only generates rebounds on 9.5% of his shots. Generating rebounds is meaningful because it means that your shots that don’t go in aren’t just getting frozen by the goalie, they are still in play — thus, potentially allowing for a second opportunity.
Rebounds make up over 15% of goals scored in the NHL, so being able to generate these high danger chances is very important. Shots after a rebound are far more dangerous than shots that are not. So, while a 2% difference may seem insignificant, it can be the difference between a frozen puck and a goal.
Hiller has recently made note that Dubois’ physical play has also been an encouraging sign, as the coach sees this as a sign his player has been moving his feet better and more often. Hits data supports this theory, as well. Dubois has gone from 2.8 hits/60 in the first 48 games to 7.2 since the extended break in February. Overall, his 50 hits over that latter time period are third-best on the team, trailing only Matt Roy (54) and Andreas Englund (52).
One other stat worth noting — and, admittedly, it doesn’t garner the same respect as some of the modern day fancy stats — is plus-minus. Since the coaching change, Dubois has a plus-4 rating in those 26 games. Over the first 48 games of the season, he was minus-16. That’s quite a contrast by any lens used. From a percentage standpoint, Dubois finished the night as a plus-player in nine of the first 48 games (19%), compared to eight times in 26 tries (31%) since the All Star break.
While the first half of the season had some questioning if signing the 25-year old forward to an eight-year contract was a smart move or not, Dubois has improved his metrics during the second half. If he continues this trend, we can reasonably expect a better offensive impact in the future.
Consistency will be the key long-term, though. What separates great players from average players are the one who consistently show up and deliver on a nightly basis, regardless of all other factors.
What about the short term? As far as this season goes, Dubois’ 2023-24 success or failure will be measured by what occurs in the postseason. He has a chance to rewrite the general narrative of this season, or it can reinforce the opinions that have been formed. Time will tell.
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Do we get to renegotiate his salary to $4.25m? Negative comment to follow but here goes. He’s sucked the life out of this team. The team that started the season had belief they could beat anyone with the addition of this elite player. After the players realizing they had a 8.5m third liner, the spark and belief was gone. They were actually going to have to carry this guy.
They will win maybe two games in the post season and Blake will be let go. Unfortunately, getting a good GM to replace and deal with an 8.5 x 8 third liner will be nearly impossible. For all the good he has done, Blake killed the team for the foreseeable future. Hoven drastically underestimates the impact of adding an 8.5×8 third liner. He will not become anything more in two or three years….
I’m guessing Point generates less rebounds because he’s buried 42 of his shots. Seems like we’re grasping here.
#80 Stinks!! His contract will handcuff the kings for the next 4 or 5 years. There is no cap room for the kings to really do anything they still need to sign #3 and #33 and a goaltender so they are basically screwed!! They don’t have any good young NHL caliber forwards left in Ontario so the future is not looking very bright for the organization. They should have fired Luke or Rob not the coach although I was not a big fan of Todd’s. Their draft has been sub standard for the last few years. I hate to say but we will be stuck with PU DO DO for a long while
For starters, there is some significantly incorrect info in that comment. Kings will have over $15M to spend this summer. It’s been covered quite extensively on the past few Kings Of The Podcast episodes.
Think Jack meant Luc and not Luke.
His frustration has points though. We all can agree the prospects are not great because I believe Jack meant to say we traded them away for Fiala and Gavrikov. Because of the contracts to BOTH Gavrikov and Dubios the team has no cap room. This wasn’t their fault. It wasn’t Todd’s fault.
Short answer is Blake assembled this team. He resigned Todd. Blake is the guy that should take the fall. Luc is the president and Blake is his GM, so maybe he goes also? 8 games left. 3 behind Vegas 3 above St. Louis.
Long answer down below. Kopitar(36) shouldn’t be leading the team. Dubios should have “replaced” him. Byfield is worth the money. Kaliyev(like Dubios) failed that test. That $15 million isn’t 15 when you resign Q.
Huge fan of MM!
Like I said They still need to sign #3 and #33 and a starting goaltender so please tell me how much of that $15m is going to be left to spend after that happens. Oh and I almost forgot how about Byfield he is going to get a payday at the end of this year. He was a bargain this year at under a million and probably not so much next year.
The Kings are worse this season than last year. Just point wise even if the Kings won their last 8 games they still would be 4 points shy. The team has had cap issues and we all know they couldn’t resign certain players from last seasons roster, but statistically they’re doing worse.
Some fans blame Todd. Some blame Blake. Some blame Luc. Hiller is 8-7 with the team. Todd is still getting paid next season. So cap issues again.
As MM has reported that Roy(UFA) would most likely want around 5 million(unless he signs a team friendly deal). Byfield is going to get paid because unlike Kaliyev, Q has really stepped up. Kaliyev moves at the draft. And Arvidsson along with Lewis, and all 3 goalies are UFAs. While Lizotte, Gundstrom, and Reign guys like 4 year pro Thomas are all RFA’s with arbitration rights.
All I see is at the moment is cap issues yet again. And Dubios has Arvidsson which has helped himself and the team a lot. So back to square one with Dubios line mates.
Next season you got 2nd year pro next year Laferriere to rejoin him. The entire 4th line possibly will all be gone to help acquire someone(help the cap) in the off-season. That would assure/assume that Turcotte and Thomas replace them. Lewis can replace Lizotte for league minimum if they go that route. Clarke replaces Roy. But the trend is losing players due to the cap/free agency.
IF the Kings make the playoffs and the Blues do not than Blake’s plan of acquiring Dubois for the playoffs can be tested.
Things will play itself out, but the team isn’t losing because of goaltending. The team isn’t losing because Dubios is terrible. The team isn’t losing because of coaching. The team is losing because they’re not playing like they were before new years. The real question is why?
I think it’s clear at this point that it’s mental. But most importantly there is no room for change. This is how the roster was constructed. At the end of the day this team was not constructed correctly(even with the 11 game road winning streak). You can only coach what you have and it appears pretty clear that this would be a GM issue. I have been optimistic, but reality is starting to kick in. Blake has failed. That’s it in a nutshell.
So unless the team pulls a rabbit out of their hat the fans that are and have frustrated have finally rubbed off on me. If Dubios wasn’t getting paid so much and getting what both Kempe and Danault make at 5.5 maybe there is less pressure. Kempe and Danault play the PK. Kempe plays the PP. Dubios doesn’t play any of the special team(s).
It really sucks, but Dubios 1st season to this point has been a failure. Best way to sum it up at this point is Huberdeau. Florida(Winnipeg) won the trade with Calgary(Los Angeles).
There’s always the last 8 games and playoffs, but with Danault out or Arvidsson out Dubios has not fit. We can say it’s because there isn’t a veteran player with him, but that’s not reality though.
Love all the work you guys do for MM.
1. Is PL Dubois disappointing this year for $8.5 million? Sure he is
2. As the writer points out, he has been better under Jim Hiller.
3. As some others have said, if the team can get to the 2nd or 3rd round of the playoffs, and PL plays better in the playoffs than in the regular season, is the $8.5 million worth it? I would say “Yes”.
4. If years 2 through 7 of his contract yields an average of 20 goals and 70 points/year, will the contract be worth it?
The answers to questions 1 & 2 are facts. The answers to 3 & 4 have not yet been answered and I, for one, am willing to wait to find out if it is.
While I agree PLD is playing better than earlier this season, I agree that he is WAY overpaid. At best he’s a $4-5 mil player. His contract is an albatross on the future of the Kings. Even when DD and AK retire, PLD is not the guy to shepard the team forward. Poor decision Blake.
PLD is the type of player that needs 1 year deals for the rest of his career. No motivation at all. Can’t believe the Kings gave him 8 years with the history he had. He’s going to single handily ruin the Kings chances. Must suck being in the locker room with him knowing he got paid for 8 years and skates around like he’s at a public skate.
From my understanding and I might be wrong but is PLD ON the last year of his old contract, If there is anyway, to dump him before the new contract takes effect, is that even a possibility? If it is, I think it would be better than living with this player for the rest oof this long contract and the money we save go get someone who is proven.
Stats aside this would have been a bust of a deal if it were just a free agent signing. We would be complaining about the amount per year (8.5M) and the term (8yrs) !!! But this deal is MUCH worse because we gave up basically 4 quality NHL players to make this deal happen (Vilardi, Iafallo, Kupari and Durzi). People forget we also included that 2nd round pick we got for Durzi that was also included in the deal.
My biggest complaint in addition to all the above is that I have not witnessed a single game in which PLD took the Kings on his back and got a win for us when other players didn’t have a great game. He is not at all a difference maker or a game changer and Blake needs to be gone as a result of this one terrible deal that has handcuffed us so badly !
Totally agree. While Blake has made several great deals—Danault and Arvy…he has made two very costly errors that are currently weighing on the team: His over-signing of Cal Peterson (at $5million) and Dubois (at $8 million/8 years). We are retaining Peterson’s salary by virtue of the Prokiev retention with Philly(?) and will undoubtedly do the same if we were to trade PLD to unload him (we’d have to retain a good chunk of his salary)…so there you have the cap gouge. We’d be sitting on lost cap …but we might be better in the long-run…as PLD doesn’t deserve $8million ($4.5-5 at most) and it might create a different energy/chemistry in the locker room. Kempe certainly deserves closer to $6.5-8) and Byfield could be signed to a shorter contract at $5-6Mil)….and if you trade PLD and retain only $4Mil, the Kings save some $ to sign some more important pieces on our checkerboard. Because PLD will never in my estimation be a game changer or influencer. Laferriere says that PLD has helped him….but I truly doubt that. I would think that Kopi or Kempe or Danault would be more influential and admired than PLD.