With the NHL Trade Deadline now just one week away, let’s layout what to expect from the LA Kings.
It’s been a tumultuous few weeks for GM Rob Blake and coach Jim Hiller. A team reboot coming out of the All-Star break got off to a rousing start with a 4-0 shutout over the Oilers. A few games later, forward Viktor Arvidsson made his season debut and it looked like things were starting to trend upwards.
And then the wheels came off.
Arvidsson was injured last Tuesday vs. Columbus.
Mikey Anderson was injured last Thursday vs. Nashville.
As if that wasn’t enough, Adrian Kempe was then injured in Edmonton on Monday.
So, where do things stand heading into the Trade Deadline?
We’ll try to unpack a myriad of connected topics and then tie it all back together.
Injury Updates
Lost in all injury talk has been forward Carl Grundstrom. He’s on Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) with his foot in a boot. From what we’ve heard, he is expected back in late March.
Arvidsson was also moved to LTIR, which has allowed the Kings to keep ‘extra’ players on their roster. The team is really set up cap-wise to carry 21 players when everybody is fully healthy, two short of the league maximum of 23 players. Like Grundstrom, he too is expected back in mid-late March. With the timing of when he was placed on LTIR, the earliest Arvidsson can return is when LA plays Chicago on March 15.
Anderson is said to be a little ahead of that schedule. He could be back a bit earlier than Arvidsson. Because the left shot defenseman is not on LTIR, he basically can come back as soon as he’s medically cleared. We don’t believe he’ll be back before the Trade Deadline. So, we’ll say he’s still 10 days (or more) away. Obviously, injuries are a fluid situation, and this timeline could change once he resumes skating with the team in practice.
Kempe’s situation took a positive turn over the past 24 hours. We were hearing he’d probably be out 4-6 weeks initially. However, it now seems there was some encouraging news coming out of his most recent MRI. Potentially, he could be back in 2-3 weeks, allegedly. Thus, once again, it’s sounding more like mid-March.
2024 Trade Deadline
Why did we start with injury updates in an article about the Trade Deadline? Because the status of those four players is largely what will drive Blake’s approach heading into next Friday.
Bottom line, according to team sources we’ve spoken with, the Kings are not expected to acquire a goaltender or a scoring forward — the two most common items mentioned by fans and other media members in recent weeks.
LA is not making a deal for Tyler Toffoli, Jake Guentzel, or Juuse Saros.
They also won’t be trading their 2024 first round pick next week.
Quite frankly, the reason the Kings won’t be making any significant trades is because they can’t afford to cap-wise. Although they have extra money to play with right now because of their LTIR situation, they also have to be able to put a roster together that has all four of those players tucked under the cap limit. As mentioned above — and numerous times this season — the roster can only really carry 21 players when Kempe, Arvidsson, Anderson, and Grundstrom are all healthy. Which means, their options are extremely limited if they wanted to add a player because they’re basically at the cap limit when all 21 players are healthy.
What are some options then?
Well, if they traded picks/prospects for a player from another team, they most likely wouldn’t have the money to keep that 22nd player on the roster come mid-late March when everybody is healthy.
For argument’s sake, let’s assume these are the 21 players on the roster to be cap compliant:
Byfield – Kopitar – Kempe
Moore – Danault – Fiala
Laferriere – Dubois – Arvidsson
Lewis – Lizotte – Kaliyev
Anderson – Doughty
Gavrikov – Roy
Englund – Clarke
Spence
Talbot
Rittich
In that scenario, they are missing Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Alex Turcotte, and Carl Grundstrom. It’s not to say those are the definitive three that will be off the roster. It’s just illustrating how difficult it is to get down to 21 once everybody is healthy.
Turcotte is the only one of those three who can go to AHL Ontario without needing waivers.
Despite the speculation by some of Kaliyev being traded, we don’t expect him to be moved next week. If Kaliyev is dealt, it is far more likely to happen in June at the Draft in Vegas, where his value will be higher than it is at the Trade Deadline.
We also expect Alex Laferriere to be up for the balance of the season. Thus, they’ll need to get creative to keep Grundstrom on the roster.
Could Trevor Lewis be traded? Sure, it’s an option. We don’t expect the Kings to do that, though.
Robbing Peter to Pay Paul
Your daily reminder…
Matt Roy is not being traded next week
— The Mayor | Team MM (@mayorNHL) February 27, 2024
Also, unless there is an unexpected turn of events over the next seven days, our sources have confirmed the plan is to keep Matt Roy; not trade him before Friday’s deadline. We first wrote about it back in January in an article here.
Why not?
Two primary reasons:
1. They’re a better team with Roy than without him. The Kings want to try and make some noise in the playoffs. To do so, they’ll need Roy. While trading him would create some money for a forward (and they could conceivably slot Jordan Spence into his RD2 spot on the roster), they’d be helping the offense and weakening the defense. So, that’s like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
2. LA management is hopeful of re-signing Roy this off-season. Now, that’s a tall task once you peel the onion and dig in. They know it’s probably 50-50, at best, that they can pull it off, but that won’t stop them from trying. Part of the challenge has to do with the limited amount of money they’ll have this summer. Equally working against them is the fact Roy’s eventual price tag could be much higher than whatever they’re able to cobble together.
The above 2024-25 cap projection is designed to provide a quick glance at what they’re working with come this summer. With Anze Kopitar’s new contract kicking in, they’ll save $3M. Add it the savings of Arvidsson coming off the books and they’ll save more than $4M more. And the cap is going up too.
Take all of that into consideration — along with the removal of David Rittich and Cam Talbot from the roster — and the Kings are left with just shy of $15M to work with, and they’ll need to accomplish three major things, maybe four.
For starters, they’re going to spend money on a starting goalie. Next, they’ll sign Quinton Byfield to an extension; preferably a $4-5M bridge deal, but that’s a conversation for this summer.
Working through the math, if the combined expense for Byfield and the goalie came in around $10M, there would be just shy of $5M remaining for Roy. That would be it. They’d be at the cap limit and there wouldn’t be money left over to add a UFA forward to replace Arvidsson.
Re-signing Roy would also mean Spence would likely be traded, as Brandt Clarke would be the RD3 next season until he’s ready to leapfrog Roy on the depth chart. There wouldn’t be much of a point to keep Spence around as a seventh D. This all assumes the organization will continue to want to keep guys on their natural shooting side.
Spence’s money would then be reallocated to another inexpensive blueliner.
Ditto with Kaliyev. Trading him doesn’t really free up money. His slot on the above schedule would just be taken by another player with a very similar cap hit.
We are expecting Turcotte and Akil Thomas to be on the NHL roster next season.
Also, don’t be surprised to see Thomas called up before the end of this season if the Kings are in a position to do an emergency recall. Both he and Sammy Fagemo were being talked about internally for a possible recall, if needed.
One Other Option to Watch
Blake Lizotte is a Restricted Free Agent this summer. He makes $1.675M as a 4C, on a team up against the cap. It just doesn’t make mathematical sense long-term. Trading him now is probably the one true chip Blake can play next week. Even though it wouldn’t be enough money to do anything major, just having his cap hit off the books would give the team a little bit of breathing room; something they desperately need.
We’re not saying he will be traded. Similar to Roy, Lizotte brings something they’d like to have for the playoffs. Yet, if they were going to do anything at the Deadline, this is one of the few moves that make sense.
Would that one move be enough to help them add some extra grit too? Possibly.
Paper Transactions
Perhaps the biggest thing to look for next week surrounding the Kings are waivers. As explained here, NHL teams can only make four non-emergency recalls after the NHL Trade Deadline. Additionally, to make players eligible for the AHL playoffs, they must be on the AHL roster at the time of the of the NHL Trade Deadline.
To become cap complaint (in advance of the Kings four injured players eventually returning), they’ll need to set things up for their ‘normal roster of 21 players’ by clearing four spots next week. To make it easier, think of it this way… the Kings have to be able to send down players after the Trade Deadline (when the guys become healthy). In order to be able to send players down at the time the healthy guys are returning, those players need to be ‘cleared’ to be sent down by noon on Friday, March 8.
Anybody who is on the NHL roster at noon next Friday, cannot be sent down to Ontario for the rest of the season. Those are the rules.
Therefore, Turcotte will be sent to the AHL in a paper transaction; meaning right after the Deadline passes, the Kings will immediately use one of their four available recalls.
Clarke or Spence will most likely be one of the other players sent down and then immediately recalled.
To come up with two other spots, the Kings could be forced to put Jacob Moverare and/or Jaret Anderson-Dolan on waivers as early as Wednesday of next week — to give the player(s) time to clear waivers, and be available to play Thursday night vs. Ottawa.
Of course, should a player like JAD be claimed on waivers, Thomas and Fagemo re-enter the conversation for a recall.
Should Moverare get claimed, that creates a temporary conundrum because the organization is currently a little thin when it comes to defensive depth available for a recall in Ontario.
If this section is a bit confusing, start with the article linked above that explains the post-Trade Deadline recall rules. Or, simply know that the Kings will be clearing four spots next week and then the plan will be to recall three or four of those players immediately following the Trade Deadline (i.e. they will be paper transactions) … because the team won’t have enough healthy bodies without them until mid-March.
RELATED CONTENT:
Kings Expected to Take ‘Wait and See’ Approach with Roy and Other UFAs
The Story: Playing Brandt Clarke Too Much This Season Brings Risk for Kings
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We don’t need Tonka, Arty, Spence, or Englund.
We DO need 46, as there’s no other forward that hounds the puck and draws penalties more than Blake.
Article at least straightened out the process , that said the team badly needs a true 4th line . Lewis is good but is not what is needed , Lizott is just way too small , if he does not have a Heavy weight on his left . Kaliyev goes this summer , has not shown anything . Spence not a long term fit , Gavrikov has taken a step back just when he should step up . This team needs Grit , outside of Englund it simply does not have it . The Playoffs will open up this weak link , and gong up against the No.1 West will give the Kings another 1 and out ” if ” they even make the Playoffs . The Pacific and Western Conference are loaded with Physical Teams .
Spot on. We’re softer than burrata cheese. We tend to fall in love with players. We thought we hit the jackpot with Kaliyev when he dropped to the second round. Nope. I Gav has taken a minor step back but that could be due to injury. He definitely isn’t the same player who jumped into the offense when we got him last year. Englund has been better than expected and is the only tough player on the squad, but in the long term, he’s not a King. Lizotte has heart but as noted is too small. Grundy shows flashes but will forever be a fourth line player. Spence has potential but we’re already small on defense. He needs to be moved as Clarke is the future. Give Akil a shot for his grit or Sammy the spot for his scoring.
Agree, Clark is the future , you could see him analyzing how to attack . Watched him at Ontario also and still growing . The Team did get better , but so did everyone else . It’s going to be a battle for the playoffs and then it’s gets nasty
Thanks for the update – I do have a question on the bonus overage of $1mil for next year. I’m still relatively new to the NHL cap, but my understanding is that we are facing that because we are almost exactly at the cap and Talbot met the games played $1mil bonus which puts us over the cap this year by that $1mil, shrinking our cap by that figure next year. If we were able to shed that $1mil from our salary this year, we wouldn’t have that penalty next year, correct? I think in one of your previous articles you essentially called it a loan against next seasons cap. You mentioned trading Lizotte to free up some breathing room and while that wouldn’t clear the full $1mil, I’ve been curious why there’s been no discussion about unloading Copley for that wiggle room? Could Blake in theory send him to a team with cap space along with a 5th round pick or something, essentially selling that pick to the team for the remainder of his salary and buying us that same breathing room for this season and saving some of next years overage? Wouldn’t a combination of Copley & Lizotte/Grundestrom’s contracts buy us that full million in space to not have the overage next year? Is the team really benefiting that much from more Copley’s LTIR figure this year than having that extra cap space next year? Or is there some taboo or poor form to trading an injured player like Copley?
Thanks John. Does Jacob Moverare need to clear waivers prior to being sent down to Ontario by March 8th? He seems like a promising young defenseman with a very bright future, hopefully with the Kings.
Great content as always. Love the breakedown, clear and consise with multiple possibilties.
Personally…I’d trade Roy. He would free up the most cap space and bring the most assests back in a draft where we need more. Plus as stated there are obstacles present with resigning him. Add to it, I do believe we have options to replace him. Spence is underrated defensively and Moverare has shown he is a steady force. I would have no problem at all placing in Moverare and removing Englund for example.
Also…Lizzo could go and it would not affect this team at all. I like him…I do. Great teammate, grinder, the ultimate pest on the ice. But he’s limited. He’s a 4C with no position versatility. Those are facts. The Kings have multiple options to replace him and would either have a higher ceiling with those players or would be able to stay as is.
Complete kick ass update!
Thanks JH!
1. The Kings are getting all these players back so its not really worth acquiring anything out of desperation unless the cost is minimal.
2. Don’t sell low or trade anything, especially Kaliyev and Turcote.
3. Some internet know it alls, have been crying for Blake to be fired. Even less chance of that happening as his contract is through next season and the team has had strong moments and promoting Hiller and ousting McLlelan was a success.
4. Going so close to the cap costs flexibility, it may seem like an issue but it may actually be a blessing in disguise.
No room for desperate trades.
5, When you are out on the road, you want to have up to a 23 man roster, especially if you have players coming back from injuries that could be re-injured.back up
6. I would resign Rittich or Talbot, or both as a backup if the price is right, depending on how they perform from here on out . One source had Talbot as the 47th ranked FA player and the top UFA goalie at mid season, before he fell of a cliff into a slump. There are nothing but journey men UFA GT’s this summer.
7. Trading low on young players like Kaliyev and Spence is a fools errand. Look how Byfield broke out position wise last season and statistically th
8. Hiller seems to now how to shift players into the right gears to Traverse uphill and make it to the downhill gradient. Injuries happen and fortunately Blake has hoarded depth. He will present very accountable offers to RFA’s.
9. Moverare has come up and played too well to risk being lost and would likely be claimed.
Especially after losing Bjornfot to one of our biggest rival the Golden Tights.
10. Not sure what the hell Blake can do about it.
Dubois has continued to be a very mercurial player but could pay big dividends someday.
He has been scapegoated a bit but has warranted criticism at times.
As of now, he has not payed out, for the cost of everything associated with being cash strap onned against the cap.
As for comments.
Lizotte has the heart of a champion but gets hammered and injured too much because of his size and admirable fearlessness.
Yes we need grit but selling low in the summer or now on Kaliyev is stupid. they are worth very little now. Allow them to build value and keep them until the next deadline. They could break out anytime, like Byfield to a lesser degree. If they fail, you can trade them for just as much or close anyway.
Lewis is on a minimum salary and worth it between PK and vet role and L4.
I would have Fagemo on the Kings next year. Don’t lose him!
Copley’s contract ends in the summer, no one will touch that.
Grundstrom and Lizotte are not worth much and other GM’s know Blake is bent over the cap strap.
Moverare can be snatched on waivers, as clearly implied.
I’m fine not doing any moves at trade deadline.
We are not even positive we are going to make playoffs. One player isn’t going to change that. I say love or die with the team that we have between Kings and Reign.
Lol, ok comment was long and wordy, sorry.
After you send a player down to the AHL, does a recall to the Kings also count as one of the 4 allotted post deadline transactions inter-league transactions?
Great article, thank you.
Yes, any non-emergency recall after the Trade Deadline counts toward the four maximum recalls.
That’s why this week is going to be tricky for the Kings.
Wow, thanks Hoven.
Keep up the outstanding breakdowns and analysis.
Can some please explain to me why, if we have over 10mil sitting in LTIR, through and past the trade deadline, we can’t use it to acquire some assets per this article? Didn’t Tampa Bay as well as Vegas cleverly time their LTIRs around the trade deadline to enter the playoffs 18+mil over the cap when the players made a “miraculous” comeback? VGK has 20mil sitting in LTIR thanks to Stone and Eichel. I’m pretty sure you’re going to see them stack up. What gives?
Money freed up via LTIR only helps you while the injured player is sidelined. Once the player returns (during the regular season), his team needs to have the cap space to add him back to the roster. Said differently, the Kings can’t simply acquire a player making $4M right now because once Arvidsson is ready to return, they need the cap space to be able to activate him.
The difference with Vegas or Tampa was that their injured players didn’t return until the playoffs, where there is no salary cap. LA”s players are scheduled to return in March.
Give Dubois away (or send him to Ontario). Bring up the kids who will try their hearts out. Prayerfully there might be some idiot GM out there that would take half of PLD’s salary so that we only have to eat $4 million per year over the next 7 years, thus helping our cap situation a little bit. The worst trade in Kings history will only seem even worse if we keep him. Lazy and has to be disrespected in the locker room for his lack of effort, ridiculous salary, and the loss of key players like Iafallo, Vilardi, and Kupari….
Minor clarification…
1. LA can’t just send Dubois to Ontario. They’d have to put him on waivers.
2. A buyout would cost them less than trading him and retaining the max 50% of his contract.
I’m not sure why you implied that Talbot is going to be off the roster. He may have been in a slump but not every goal scored against is the fault of the goalie. The last two games have been much better whether Talbot’s been better, the defense has been better or both. So if both current goalies are sent packing, how do you get an even better goalie with the cap space issues?
They broke it all down and explained it on KOTP here:
https://mayorsmanor.com/2024/03/kings-of-the-podcast-ep-183-trade-deadline-preview/
Trade M Anderson and the 4 million cap hit. Don’t miss him for that much cash!