Rob Blake’s summer is just getting started.
With a plethora of heavy lifting expected throughout the next few months, his reshaping of LA’s hockey roster is in its infancy. Even so, we can start to whiteboard out an early look of what’s to come. During the process, it can’t be stressed enough just how much of a rough draft this really is. One simple trade involving any of last season’s roster players throws the entire thing into chaos, as filling one hole very likely creates — not necessarily another hole, but various secondary options. For example, if a trade for a defenseman involves (hypothetically speaking) Adrian Kempe and Sean Walker, there are clear ripple effects caused by that deal.
We’ll spare everybody a 5,000 word dissertation outlining 612 different probabilities. Instead, we’ll try to do this in segments over the next two months to make it easier to consume along the way.
LA Kings Projected 2021-22 Opening Night Lineup
Kempe – Kopitar – (OPEN RW1)
Iafallo – Vilardi – Andersson
(OPEN LW3) – Byfield – Brown
Moore – JAD – Wagner
(Forward 13)
(Forward 14)
Bjornfot – Doughty
(OPEN D2) – Roy
Anderson – Walker
(Defense 7)
Petersen
Quick
First Things First
Let’s get the goaltending out of the way first. People love to speculate that Jonathan Quick will be selected by Seattle in the Expansion Draft. We just don’t see it. This isn’t Marc-Andre Fleury and Vegas all over again. Even putting the recent injury and surgery aside, Quick is more than three years older than Fleury was at the time and that makes a big difference. When other goalies like Jake Allen (Montreal), Chris Driedger (Florida), Ilya Samsonov (Washington), Adin Hill (Arizona), and Matiss Kivlenieks (Columbus) could potentially be available, the probability that Quick gets selected goes down dramatically.
On defense, it’s been well documented — and a frequent Kings Of The Podcast topic — that Blake and company will be looking to add a defenseman either via trade or free agency.
Until that happens, it’s difficult to project exactly what happens on the blueline. It could be a guy on the top pair, it could just as easily be somebody who starts on the second pair. For now, we’re putting a place holder on the latter.
Who the player is that’s acquired, as well as how he’s acquired also impacts things here. If it’s via trade, does it cost the Kings Sean Walker? It’s possible. For now, we’ll leave it as is and make note of the other defensive position – the seventh guy in the group.
In part, Olli Maatta was originally acquired to make sure the Kings met the “experienced defenseman” requirement in the upcoming Expansion Draft. Assuming he isn’t taken by Seattle, the Kings are still on the hook for one more season. If they were to included him in any sort of a trade, it could come with them eating some salary, which is possible, but not very likely at this point. He could also end up on waivers to start the season. Yet, if nobody grabs him that leaves about 1M still hitting the NHL salary cap while he waits his turn in the AHL.
Kurtis MacDermid is another option to fill the 7D spot, yet we think the odds are greater than 50% he gets traded this summer. Christian Wolanin (Group 6 UFA) could also be a longshot option. Originally acquired in a deal with Ottawa a few months ago in exchange for Michael Amadio, he was originally seen as a stop gap. However, he showed well and was liked by the coaches in both LA and Ontario. If he’s open to it, we could see him returning for another year in a depth role – even if he doesn’t end up on the NHL roster come opening night.
At the moment, it doesn’t appear Kale Clague or Austin Strand will be on the opening night roster. Again — and this point can’t be stressed enough — this is a point-in-time look at the roster. Following other moves later this summer, we’ll have to readdress if a spot has opened up for either player, or even somebody like Sean Durzi.
Focused on the Forwards
Using the rough lineup posted above, there are likely four roster spots currently up for grabs. Assuming there is a top-six addition from outside the organization, that leaves three openings (unless one of the above players is included in said deal). And at least one of those openings could be filled by a player from the Reign roster.
Thus, a quick look at the current candidates in LA shows that any one of these players could conceivably not be on the Kings opening night roster. In fact, it’s far more realistic to think that no more than two of these players will be with the team in October:
Andreas Athanasiou – faded hard down the stretch, less confident he’ll be re-signed
Carl Grundstrom – earned the trust of coach Todd McLellan and is versatile, in both position and style of play
Brendan Lemieux – has one year left on his deal, didn’t show much in his brief trial run with the team, much of his future in LA could be tied to what happens with MacDermid
Blake Lizotte – was a bridge to Anderson-Dolan, and Anderson-Dolan has arrived, so immediate future is cloudy
Which brings us to Martin Frk. He just might be the biggest question mark today. He’ll be pushing for a spot come training camp after basically what amounted to a lost season. And if there’s any thought at all about putting him back together with Vilardi to rekindle the magic they had, it actually works out better for Andersson, who is being groomed to play the left side.
A move like that, also gives McLellan the option to put either Iafallo or Brown back with Kopitar (we’d be surprised to see both there) – something like:
(OPEN LW1) – Kopitar – Brown
Andersson – Vilardi – Frk
Iafallo – Byfield – Moore
Kempe – JAD – Wagner
Pushing For a Spot (alphabetical order)
How many times will we need to say this – if (insert player name below) isn’t on the opening night roster, that doesn’t mean he’s a bust. All four of the players listed are exempt from waivers, meaning they can go up/down between the NHL and AHL freely. That is a huge roster advantage for a GM. They can fight for a spot during camp, but if they need to go to the AHL to start the year, it’s not an issue. We know there is a segment of the Kings fanbase that wants them to play the kids. Just remember Blake’s comments from last week, “We’re not going to put them in the NHL until we know they’re ready.”
Arthur Kaliyev – of all the players in Ontario this season not named Byfield, we believe Kaliyev is the most likely to be getting regular minutes come October… where and how he fits in will not become more clear until after LA makes some other roster moves… on the plus side, he’s now eligible to play in the AHL (unlike Byfield, who will be either OHL or NHL next season), so LA doesn’t have to shoehorn him into the opening night lineup if they want to give him a little more time to develop
Rasmus Kupari – he’s ready for the NHL, no doubt; the question becomes where… if he’s staying at center, it also means other moves are necessary… like Kaliyev, he could start the year in the AHL, if needed (he’s only one-third of the way through his Entry Level Contract, so waivers aren’t an issue)
Akil Thomas – we recently tabbed him as ‘Most Likely to Breakout in 2021-22’ for our recent feature story on LA Kings Insider… barring a much bigger roster shakeup than we’re expecting this summer, look for Thomas to start the year with AHL Ontario and wearing a letter… he’ll see NHL action next season, odds are it just won’t be as early as October
Alex Turcotte – could potentially push for a roster spot come opening night, yet several things will have to fall into place first… look beyond the simple goals and assists, Turcotte drives offense when he’s on the ice; he did it for Team USA at the World Juniors and he did it for the Ontario Reign… his point-per-game numbers were a smidge ahead of Byfield during their time with the Reign in 2021, (.66 to .63 PPG)… he’s like Mike Richards, in the sense he makes others around him better… we really liked what we saw when Turcotte and Byfield were paired together in Ontario… that could be a very intriguing combo to watch for in the future
ICYMI – be sure to read the articles below for even more context about the summer ahead.
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Wolanin will be a Group VI UFA at the end of the season since he’s 26, has 3+ years of pro experience, and doesn’t have 71 career NHL games (pro-rated) under his belt. Unless LA signs him as a UFA (unlikely), he’s not going to be an option for next year’s team.
Correct, he’s a UFA, thus the “If he’s open to it…” line.
LA is always looking to add depth players and he could fit that role. Most likely, wouldn’t be somebody on the NHL roster to start the year, but could be a player that gets called up from the AHL due to injury, etc.
I know it’s destined for a future article but maybe you could give a preview of who the Kings could be targeting via trade or free agency. I think trading roster players for a winger like Johnny Gaudreau is our best move for this offseason. Frees up roster spots for the kids and gets Kopitar a winger who can score. Can’t wait for the next pod. Thanks Mayor!
Good player, would help the offense next year. Problem is, you’d likely have to give up quite a bit to get a player who is only under contract for one more season.
FWIW – we discussed the situation in greater detail on KOTP a few days after your post. Check that out and then they’ll also be a new article on MM in the coming days.
Remind me again — why the love for Wagner? Yeah, yeah, speed. But if the need for speed is that huge, Athanasiou had more production (even accounting for the end-of-year slump) and seemed like less of a defensive liability.
I’m sooooooo praying that Seattle takes Wagner.
It’s not really about ‘love’ for Wagner. He is under contract, though.
We provided an update on AA contract situation here https://mayorsmanor.com/2021/05/kings-of-the-podcast-s2-e34-sean-durzi-and-lak-mailbag/
So what does a Kempe+Walker deal really get you that upgrades the D? Maybe you can get Werenski out of CBJ with that offer but no chance of Seth Jones which is what LA really needs.
Those players were mentioned just as hypothetical placeholders (for example purpose only). We suspect any deal to acquire the LHD they’re looking for will cost more than those two players.
I am probably in the minority, but bring back Forbort to play ld2. See what he did in WPG? Cost might be an issue, in that hey going to ask more than his value. He played on a 1m contract but he’s going to want a lot more.
Him and Roy could be a really tough shut down pairing. Roy would also be opened up to play a little more aggressive offensively as he’d have the stay home Forb backing him up.
I’m thinking somewhere around 3.5m for 4 seasons, but walk away if he demands North of 4m.
I think the bigger concern is the Kings entire system, top down and one has to ask, why do former Kings go on to thrive in other systems? We know offensively many former players go on to be more productive, but even watching Forbort defend in the Peg like we hoped he would be here in LA has to make you stop and ask why these players essentially go on to be, well…better players outside of LA?
This is of course not a new situation and not all reach that next level but more do than don’t.
Its a stifling system
Big picture, Kings are looking for an offensive-minded D to help upgrade.
If you’re talking about a guy to upgrade the Maatta spot, that’s a different story.
Thanks. A good writing/summary, I liked it.
Rasmus Kupari – I think he has played only one game as a winger (https://theahl.com/stats/game-center/1019971). It was game against San Jose Barracudas and Ontario lost it 2-9. It was maybye the worst game, which Kupari played in the AHL. He was just totally lost out there, especially defensively. If they (coaching staff) want to use him a a winger, they must first teach him to play as a winger.
If Byfield is guaranteed a spot, then Kaliyev should be there too.
Two different situations. Byfield must go to the OHL if he’s not in the NHL.
Kaliyev is eligible to go to the AHL this coming season. In a perfect world, Byfield would be there too. It’s just against the rules.
I’m curious why no Kempe and Brown with Kopi on the 1st line?
Brown could absolutely be on that line. We explained it in greater detail here: https://mayorsmanor.com/2021/05/kings-of-the-podcast-s2-e34-sean-durzi-and-lak-mailbag/
How does Mikey move back to third pair? It’s a nice problem to have but he a Drew solidified into a pretty dependable pairing. I would be happy to see us move on from From Kempe, his -14 is telling. The rest of the players he played with regularly were in the -8 range.
44 brings little to the table offensively. The too pairing should be chipping in on the score sheet. If 33 is only a little worse than 44 defending he definitely is better offensively. 44 might grow into the 2LD over time, but it makes sense to put him with Walker as the stay home guy to Walks’ adventurous, jumping in the rush dude.
I just wish 44 and 33 start learning how to and build physically into being able to play a stronger, more physical game. We’re not likely going far if someone like EK9 or Reaves or the Foligno-Erikson Ek-Greenway line in Minny dominate netfront against those guys.
If we’re willing to offer sheet someone Stanley in WPG might be worth looking at. He seems to be a.more effective 56. They have to resign some important pieces, and replace others that are aging oit(Stastny, for instance). Stanley could be a guy that if we don’t land hurts the Jets by forcing them to over pay out of that 14m in cap room they have.
Offer sheets? Are those still a thing in the NHL. Only heard of them. Sort of like Bigfoot.
Ideally, the Kings would get a LD1, which pushes Bjornfot and Anderson back one pairing. If they’re not able to do that right away, they’ll be looking for more offense from the current group, which is why Bjornfot is likely to get a look there.
Forbs tried to hard offensively. It wasn’t who he was, but who he tried to be. That really hurt his play. In WPG hey just defending. He’s being physical, blocking shots, and using that stick. My impression was he wanted more $ than his actual value. He’d gone to arbitration already on his previous contract. Trade, like the Toff, was because he wanted more money than we could spend to.keep him. Yes, Toff took about the same, team friendly contract, to be in MTL but being in a system that doesn’t stress defense and puck control over everything else probably means he’s happie r and willing to play for a little less.
Like I said though, if Forbs can be gotten for 3.5-4m, basically Pesce contract, he can help this d-corps. He doesn’t make it a SC winning team on his lonesome, but he helps her us there on a budget.
I thought the forecast was for a 1LD, but Mayor is projecting it to be a 2ld. That’s an interesting development. Just a hunch, or is there something you can’t talk about just yet,Mayor? Not on Twitter as I shattered the screen on my phone, and don’t remember my passwords. I’m not able to transfer my iPhone data to the New phone until JUN(understand, Apple, but it’s annoying). So.it’s website for news now .
We did explain some of the reasoning on this week’s KOTP (which came out a few days after your comment here). In short, the LD1 project could become a “over the next 12 months” thing. If it does, they still plan on adding a legit NHL dman on a short-term bridge deal this summer.
Looking at this again, Byfield really doesn’t get much to work with on that third line. SO is a lot of things, but a driver of offense he’s not. who expects Moore to be a 40 point guy? Tough pickings. I’d love to see if AI, 55, and Kaliyev work and show chemistry in training camp. Rucchin -esque responsible AI balancing out the offensively minded rookies.
After the RW signing do you want to adjust your projected lines? AI or 23 to Kopi’s left to have the hard nosed, fights in the corners, goes bet front for the ugly goals? Maybe Kempe as he’s shown growth, and would be a speedy line of playmakers and shooters?
I cannot wait to see what happens. OCT cannot get here fast enough, on the hockey front as I can wait on everything else.