As the playoffs continue to resume and players participate in the World Championship, the NHL released new lottery odds for all the non-playoff teams for a chance to win either the first or second overall pick. The worst-case scenario for the Kings is to pick 10th overall.
Updated draft lottery odds https://t.co/mEFFRIrvNI
— The Armchair Scout (@Davidenkness) May 20, 2021
In the event the Kings win the lottery, they would have first pick of the litter for the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. Talks of who should be picked first has circulated, and usually the hype begins even before the season.
Let’s take a look at one such player who was expected to be the first overall. Is he still a leading candidate? If not, how far could he fall?
AATU RÄTY
Vitals
Date of Birth: November 14, 2002
Height: 6’1
Weight: 181 lbs
Shoots: Left
Position: Forward
2020-21 Season
Räty played the entirety of the 2020-21 season in Finland for the Kärpät organization. At the highest level (Liiga), he accumulated 6 points (3 G, 3 A) in 35 contests.
Pre-Draft Hype
The Finnish forward had a lot of attention prior to the start of the 2020-21 season. Around this time last year, many publications, such as The Draft Analyst, EliteProspects, and McKeens, had penciled Räty as the first overall pick of this draft. Keep in mind these rankings weren’t without reason – he put up respectable numbers in his younger years, which brought a lot of attention on him. Along with these numbers, he has been vaunted of being very strong defensively.
Magic Kärpät Rides Without a King
Astute readers of MayorsManor should recognize the Kärpät organization, as it was the same program the Kings 2018 first-round-pick, Rasmus Kupari, played for when he was overseas. That said, they have never been teammates in any Liiga or junior program.
Not Without Royal Influences, Though
Kupari and Räty may not have played together in Kärpät, yet there are still some ties to the Kings organization. While the native of Oulunsalo, Finland was snubbed for the 2021 WJC team (another factor affecting his draft stock, which we’ll discuss below), he donned the blue and white in the in the 2020 championship – alongside fellow Kings prospects Rasmus Kupari and Kim Nousiainen.
Rankings by Independent Scouting Services
Ranked 12th by The Draft Analyst. ” Raty once was considered the closest thing we had to a lock for the No. 1 pick in this particular draft. But a depth role on a traditionally-competitive Karpat squad in Finland’s SM-Liiga kept both his minutes and his scoring opportunities to a minumim. Nevertheless, his size, shot, and two-way play improved from last year to help Raty stay in the conversation for the top 10.”
Ranked 19th by Future Considerations. FC did a deep dive into the Finnish forward, and they took a look at his tools and toolbox (the composition of his qualities). It is an interesting read, but in summary, they feel he has a lot to offer, yet he hasn’t put it together this season.
Ranked 16th by Last Word On Sports. “The questions about Raty’s offensive game have made it more likely that he will become a second-line centre than carry a franchise. However, this is still valuable. This is even more true when one considers that Raty’s strong defensive game can continue to grow and he could be used against the other team’s best players and on the penalty kill. The franchise that drafts him will need to have patience and need to work with Raty in taking the puck to the middle of the ice. He should be back in Finland next year and on the Finnish World Junior team, looking for redemption after being left off this year’s squad. When he’s at his best, Raty is comparable to Nazem Kadri, but this is a stylistic comparison only and not one based on skill and ability.”
See For Yourself
Here is a shift-by-shift video of the Finnish forward playing in the Liiga this season. He wore No. 52 in white.
Final Comments
There is a lot to unpack with this prospect. As mentioned, he was once touted as a candidate for first overall. Those conversations have all but evaporated, though. His stagnated offensive development this year, coupled with getting snubbed from the WJC, and over-analyzation of “what’s wrong” with a player has certainly caused the hype to wane. Let’s also remember these are still developing players, and Liiga is not easy to play in – failure to produce and decline of usage can hurt the confidence of even seasoned professionals, let alone 18-year-olds.
As scouts often mention, this is normal. Sometimes observers like to be contrarian or have hot takes, and other times players just plateau after a particular point. Much like with team depth charts, some players fall – others simply develop and grow over. Nico Hischier, for example, wasn’t projected as a first round prospect at the start of the 2016-17 season.
In recent conversations with scouts, some see him as a mid-to-late first round pick. He doesn’t have the game-breaking potential people used to see in him, but most believe he still has the floor of an NHL fourth liner, along with a ceiling of being a second-line center. Räty can play the full 200-foot game, with appropriate size and strength. He should surely regain his scoring touch again, but perhaps not one you would expect out of a top-ten pick.
With all this in mind, it’s unlikely to be a pick the Kings make with their current first round position, and certainly not if they win the lottery. That’s not to say they lack interest. Teams move about in the draft all the time, and should the players they are eyeing get taken, moving down and snagging a solid defensive forward is a viable strategy. He could also simply fall to the second round. It wouldn’t be the first time an expected first-rounder fell to the Kings on Day Two of the draft.
NOTE: David Hofreiter was the lead contributor in the gathering of information used in this article. You can find him on Twitter @Davidenkness to talk more hockey.
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